Earth seen from orbit over the South Atlantic, ringed by a dense shell of satellites. Two satellites on crossing orbits collide, and trails of orange debris stream ahead along both orbits.
Kessler@home

Mapping the tipping point of low Earth orbit

Project status

Updated hourly · last update 12 Nov 2026, 09:48 UTC
Scenarios completed 866 of 302,400 · 0.3%
446 active computers (24 h) 1,044 scenarios in progress
  • Simulation: code written and validated
  • BOINC server: running (server status)
  • Main sweep: running (302,400 scenarios)
  • Volunteer sign-up: Open - use the invitation code to join

What is Kessler@home?

Kessler@home is a volunteer computing project studying the long-term stability of low Earth orbit. In 1978, NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais described how collisions between objects in orbit could create debris faster than the atmosphere removes it, setting off a self-sustaining cascade now known as the Kessler syndrome.

Your computer will simulate futures of the orbital environment up to 200 years long, stopping early only once a runaway cascade is unmistakable: launches, satellite failures, collisions, and the debris clouds they produce. Running hundreds of these futures for each of more than 200,000 scenarios, covering launch traffic, the planned megaconstellations, disposal reliability, debris removal and the changing atmosphere, lets us estimate how likely a runaway cascade is and when it would come, not just what the average future looks like.

Join Kessler@home

Kessler@home is in its beta test: real work is going out to volunteers while we check the results across platforms. To join:

  1. Create an account on this website with the invitation code iridiumcosmos. The BOINC Manager can't create an account for this project, so do this step here.
  1. Install BOINC if you don't have it.
  2. In the BOINC Manager, choose Tools > Add project. Kessler@home isn't in BOINC's list of projects yet, so type its address in the Project URL box: https://kesslerathome.org/
  3. Choose existing user and log in with your account's email address and password.

On a computer without the Manager: boinccmd --project_attach https://kesslerathome.org/ KEY, with your account key from Account keys on your account page.

Join Kessler@home

Already joined? Log in.

Kessler@home runs on BOINC, the open-source platform for volunteer computing.

What your computer will do

Simulate

Propagate the orbits of tens of thousands of satellites, rocket bodies, and debris fragments for up to two centuries, including atmospheric drag and the solar cycle.

Sample

Roll the dice on which objects collide, how each collision breaks apart, and which satellites fail to dispose of themselves. Every run is a different possible future.

Report

Send back a compact summary. Our server combines millions of them into maps of where low Earth orbit stays stable and where it tips into runaway.

User of the day

User profile ProfilePetrctale
BOINCing since October 1999

News

New faster CPU/GPU apps in beta v1.06
I have done some optimization on the CPU apps that increase the speed by about 50% in my tests. Credit calculation will stay the same, so this should equate to about 50% more credit per unit time on CPUs since you will now process them faster.

If this app runs without trouble in beta, then it will be promoted to be the default application for everyone.

all CPU apps have the new beta version available. If you would like to try out the new application, enable "Run test applications" from your Project preferences

edit:
v1.06 now released as beta for all platforms.
expect ~50-60% faster on CPU
expect ~25-100% faster depending on WU and GPU.

Ian
10 Nov 2026, 3:08:58 UTC · Discuss


Kessler@home is Live!
Thank you everyone who helped beta test! It was very helpful to prepare the main sweep.

I will monitor and adjust/fix things as necessary. Please use the message boards to report any issues.

Ian
6 Nov 2026, 19:55:00 UTC · Discuss


Beta test started
Kessler@home is now in beta testing, and the first work has gone out.

The beta is 1,000 jobs: 100 scenarios, each run with 10 different random seeds. Every job goes to two volunteers' computers, and the two results have to agree exactly before they are accepted, so that's 2,000 tasks in all.

There are apps for CPUs on Linux, Windows and macOS, and for NVIDIA and AMD GPUs on Linux and Windows. Each computer can have up to 4 tasks per CPU thread and 10 per GPU at a time.

During the beta we're checking that results agree across all of these platforms, and watching run times, credit and errors. Work is limited to these beta tasks for now.

If a task fails or something looks wrong, please post in the message boards. Thank you for helping test Kessler@home!
4 Nov 2026, 12:22:13 UTC · Discuss


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